As my father used to say, “Afghanistan is dug into those mountains tighter than an Alabama tick at feeding time for the chickens.”
Tibet and Afghanistan are going to be rather difficult to dislodge from those mountains. The huge Afghan cities (take a look at Isfahhan, larger than many of the capitals out there) are pumping science and culture for later advantage. Their settle on the Indus River is going to pay some huge dividends in the long-term if they can hold it. The Mughals are in a similar, flatter position with large cities on rivers but without the UA defensive bonuses.
This map reminds me of something Jeff Lynne said back in the day…
“She cried to the southern wind
About a love that was sure to end
Every dream in her heart was gone
Headin’ for a showdown.”