Power Rankings: Episode 17 – S4

CelestialDalek:

Yeah, the Mamluks are boned the moment Saba declares war on them. It’s not like anyone else can do damage to them.

Orange:

So honestly Rozvi should probably be slightly higher since other small civs are actually at war while Rozvi isn’t. But it just always remains the case that a declaration from Ndongo would just mean their end near instantly. So that danger is keeping them here, just off last place, where they will stay until Ndongo does finally pull the trigger.

NopeCopter:

The valiant (albeit far-too-late) resistance of the Alaouites finally comes to an end as they give up half their empire to Sierra Leone in exchange for peace (and presumably to deny the Faroes the satisfaction). This is a pretty rough deal, given that the three-city core of the Alaouites was actually pretty defensible, but with the surrender of Rabat Sierra Leone now has a pretty straight shot into Meknes when the two inevitably go to war again. This blunder has taken the Alaouites from being a pretty safe albeit irrelevant civ to one that could be in mortal peril with a single war declaration, and for that reason they’ve dropped two places in the Power Rankings.

Msurdej:

Well Nazarbayev, I have good news and bad news. The bad news is you’ve lost another city. But in good news, most of your enemies have made peace with you. The bad news is that Kazan is not on that list, and they are right next to the last cities of Kazakhstan. Still, mostly peace and one enemy to deal with is better than most. Two points to Kazakhstan.

NopeCopter:

Florida rises one place in the Power Rankings mainly off of the continued collapse of weaker civs in more precarious locations. That said, they did also declare war on the Osage last episode. The odds of anything happening here are slim, and even if it does it’s probably more likely that the Osage take something off Florida than the other way around, but on the off chance that Florida’s surprisingly-decent carpet manages to capture even one Osage city, they would become legends.

ECH:

The Viet core, with all the rough terrain and defensive buffs you could desire, has been breached and the capital seems under threat. Now, Tran Thahn Tong, as in our history against the Mongol hordes, is not one to give in without a fight, and I’d note that we saw this shot two turns before the episode ended and heard nothing about the capital falling, so I suspect Zheng’s odd habit of sending ancient units to the front has delayed a fall, and a flip may even occur at Thanh Hoa. Furthermore, Dai Viet are closing in on their UU knight, the Cam Quan, which may give them a boost (ironically, much like Zheng their UU has Amphibious). That being said… this is just not a good situation, is it? With one city down and the capital likely to fall in time, Dai Viet will be left with one city in the south, vulnerable to further campaigns, and two tougher strongholds inland, which I suspect will take a while to fall. Elimination likelihood? Low. Rump likelihood? High.

JDT:

They peaced out with Makhnovia, so now they’re back to doing nothing I guess.

Nathanmasse:

Burgundy slides one rank this week as it seems they just can't catch a break.  Bavaria has rejoined the coalition against them and brought along Rome to harass Burgundy's southern coast.  Having their army pulled in two directions again is certainly demoralizing but at least they've pushed the visigoths back from Asturica and there doesn't seem to be a very high risk of losing their capital.  All in all, not great for Burgundy but they're kind of used to it at this point.

Orange:

The bell tolls for thee Bathory, the bell tolls for thee…

CelestialDalek:

Oh my god Cornplanter you moron how did you fail to take Sandur you just angered the Osage so hard they declared war on you

WAIT

You have Florida on your side, the #1 civ in the game (source: MacGregor & Co. Analytics). You cannot lose. This is going to be so easy.

JDT:The Crow enjoy a meteoric rise of 3 by virtue of other civs dying, particularly the Alaouites and Dai Viet. With nothing to talk about, I would rather construct other questions, like, why am I such a bad person? What are we doing in this site? And most importantly, who's Lila?

Leman:

Finns are really, really, really, boring.

Cloudy:

I don’t even know what to say. How is Güshi Khan this incompetent? He’s almost as bad as Maria the Mad! After giving away another core city, this time to Siam, we have to wonder whether he is simply too generous and will hand over the rest of his empire to his other neighbors, one city at a time, on a silver platter. In any case, if the Khoshuts weren’t doomed before, they sure are now.

Cloudy:

Tehuelche managed to grab the Antarctic island where the last Riograndense city was razed. Very nice. Other than that, not much to report.

CelestialDalek:

If you looked at Eswatini’s Indian Ocean colonies, then you would probably think that they have a healthy empire at home. They do not. They should thank their lucky stars that Rozvi is still alive, since they form a nice meat shield in case Ndongo decides to attack again. It’s difficult to see them breaking out of where they are now, especially considering the massive technological disadvantage they are facing.

Reformer:

Bukhara gets a boost on account of receiving a city from Kazakhstan in a peace deal for some reason. I mean, it’s funny as fuck, if nothing else. But in the meantime they’ve gotten themselves into a new war, and a stupid one at that: Harappa. The two have fought before, and while last time Harappa was unequivocally stronger, the terrain hasn’t suddenly flattened. This is still going to be a pointless drain of resources, and Bukhara’s only participating to get diplomacy bonuses with the other members of the anti-Harappa coalition. Maybe the AI knows something I don’t, but I’m pretty sure that’s not a worthwhile trade-off.

Leman:

Fifty. Five. Turns. Yinxu is offline for fifty-five turns, and presumably, their other cities are offline for about as long. We spent a while a few weeks ago trying to figure out exactly how long Shang’s cities were going to be revolting for and not only had they not left resistance since then it turns out that they have fifty-five turns left. Shang is done. Their game is over. They have only one city’s worth of science, culture, and production until turn 268. Not only do they have to wait till then and hope Goguryeo, Zheng, and Mongolia don’t carve them up in the mean time, but by the time Shang’s cities do come back online they will be so unbelievably far behind that I imagine they’ll have stats on par with civs like Finns or Crow. And this is all from a civ that was tip-top tier like three episodes ago. Just a crazy amount of self-sabotage I haven’t seen since Laos burned their last city down.

Nathanmasse:

Harappa is counting their blessings that none of the new coalition against them can actually threaten their core.  Kalibangan is still technically at risk from an attack across the ocean; but only Singapore is currently able to do so and they're also at war with Vijayanagara so it would take a real commitment on their part to take it.

Leman:

Makhnovia is still at the center of the great Eastern European Free-For-All with itself, Royal Hungary, and Latvia. On the one hand, the fact that Latvia hasn’t completely crushed Makhnovia is good news. On the other hand, Latvia has peaced out with both Kazan and Royal Hungary meaning that they might be about to crush Makhnovia. Our favorite anarchist seems to be holding their own so far so they gain a few ranks, but I’m getting nervous.

Msurdej:

The Taino are undergoing a process I call “rising failure”. Agüeybaná II’s empire is still mediocre in terms of army, production, and science. But they now find themselves in 39th place, their highest spot ever.  Why? Well, it's mostly because of other civs failing. This will be where most of Taino’s gains come from, until someone like Mexico wipes them out.

Rosay:

The Qarmatians got two mentions this part, those being Qarma’s embracement of Islam, and some worldbuilding with a great merchant. Sadly there have been no other developments on their end and unless that merchant is used to build a tile improvement it’s literally less than worthless, especially since it’s not even their own merchant.

NopeCopter:

England is in an awkward position right now where they don’t want to go back to war with Burgundy just yet but they also want to get back to war with Burgundy as quickly as possible. Their best shot at growth has always been through France, and with the Visigoths and Bavaria both grinding away Burgundy’s carpet without actually being able to take anything, not to mention England’s Unique Units coming right up, it seems like a perfect chance to strike. However, England’s mainland carpet is still looking thin, and they only have a couple of their first UU built yet, so a war declaration right now would be unlikely to achieve anything. Still, though, it’s possible that the Visigoths or Bavaria could have a breakthrough and tear up Burgundy before England comes back, which would be devastating… there’s no obvious correct play here for England, and that’s a rough spot to be in.

Rosay:

In the half of a turbulent continent known for producing strong civs. Mogadishu is out here fighting the hard fight and proving that even civs in strong areas can sit around and do nothing. Yes Mogadishu has a lot more of an excuse than other civs but come on at least start a war over custody of Madagascar or something.

JDT:

Vijayanagara continues its spats against the Afsharids, Qarmatians and Singapore. As far as we know, nothing has changed on any of these fronts. However, the further declarations of war are a bit concerning for warmongering. Aside from that… nothing has changed. Same situation, same stats, same world. Minus 2 for you with other powers progressing.

Orange:

That one Gogurt city is just sitting there, tantalizingly sweet, so open and ready to be taken. So resistless and conquerable. Doesn’t it just make Umu want to say OmO what’s this?

Rosay:

Visi, this was your ONE opportunity to make inroads into Burgundy or take on Alaouites, and you successfully did neither. Yes I know you have an awkward position, but that didn’t stop the Moors and it’s sure as hell not stopping Rome right now. Now I’m not expecting you to live up to the game winning Moors but Rome should not be a bigger threat to Burgundy’s safety than you are. Alaouites and Burgundy aren’t exactly fortress nations either you can make and use a northern navy any time you want and start a back door attack, don’t know why you haven’t.

Msurdej:

Looks like Burgundy’s back on the menu folks! After restocking their troops, Ludwig goes back to war with his western neighbor. Dijon is under siege, and the area is mostly devoid of Burgundy troops. If Bavaria can take and hold the city as they did with Beaune, it will solidify them as a regional power in Europe.

NopeCopter:

Nothing much happened for Kanem-Bornu aside from giving up on eliminating the Mamluks, but in this case no news isn’t exactly good news. After all, Sierra Leone is finally at peace, and that means they can take the opportunity to bulk up and actually defend themselves from an eastern invasion. Breaking out of the center of Africa just got that much harder, but given the sheer number of other civs that are just collapsing as of late, Kanem-Bornu still goes up a rank for looking decent enough by comparison.

CelestialDalek:

It’s time for Osage to feel the wrath of Florida and Bora combined! They won’t feel it very hard, because MacGregor is holding back from utterly annihilating them and Bora can’t access any of their cities, but they will feel it in their soul. The war with Seneca looks like it has a *chance* to go somewhere, but that’s only a chance, because Seneca can now redirect the forces they used to gawk at Sandur to defend. As long as Pueblo or Mexico don’t get involved, this is just another pointless war.

Reformer:

Almost immediately at the beginning of the episode, Ecuador settles for a cowardly peace with Tiwanaku. Despite holding the advantage, Ecuador taps out without ANY gains whatsoever. It’s just sad really. All that effort expended and for nothing. They remain the perfect middle of the pack civ. Nothing less, nothing more, and apparently never to rise to greater heights. Disappointing. ESPECIALLY if New Holland actually makes gains here.

Cloudy:

Let’s face it, it’s been a long time since Pontus did anything, and most of what they did back when they were doing stuff was lose cities. Why should we believe that will change? There’s nothing remarkable about Pontus’s stats that foretells a comeback. In fact, they fell 10 info addict ranks this week. So as they slip toward the middle of the pack, take that as the power rankers increasingly acknowledging reality on its face.

Reformer:

Ikko-Ikki makes exciting moves by fighting Shang. Just kidding, the front is like three tiles wide. For a front that small, Shang has plenty of reinforcements in their back pocket even if most of their cities are useless. Beyond that, we’re picking up Ikko-Ikki on account of some noteworthy statistical improvement. Any progress is good progress when you’re next to a top 2 power. Zheng is also here to make most paths of expansion difficult. But I definitely wouldn’t count them out yet - keep an eye on them.

JDT:

Ndongo suffers a massive 6 point drop as a great issue has begun to take greater root - they are stuck at 9 cities for the foreseeable future. Sure, there's an easy route to expand (attack Rozvi) but it seems that they are completely uninterested in trying said route. Any other paths to victory are grinding and convoluted. They have had a 4 point infoaddict fall-off, their once impressive stats looking increasingly mediocre. It is inevitable that they will be in Africa’s big 3 for a long time. The question is: can they sober up and not fall to be the smallest of them?

Nathanmasse:

Noongar drops down a few ranks this week as the last slide of the episode shows Palawa laying siege to one of their newer, northern cities which seems likely to fall.  If it is taken, Noongar should be able to muster enough troops to take it back, but even still it is not a good sign.  While the war has been indecisive, as it drags on it seems Palawa is gaining the upper hand, particularly on the tech-front where they were first of the two to reach compass and are now the first to reach steel.  It would seem best to bow out of this war soon.  

NopeCopter:

Kazan gives up on the war with Latvia just as their powerful Unique Unit comes online, throwing away what many on the PR team saw as an easy victory. Kazan is still fighting Kazakhstan, although they’re unlikely to make much progress through the Urals, and although they did beat Latvia, their only gain was a snow city (which, to be fair, is also a valuable coastal city). So… where do they go next? Kazan is still trapped between two major powers like they’ve always been, it’s just that Kazakhstan has been swapped out for the Selkups. Giving up on the Latvian invasion at the most opportune moment is rough, but they could still invade Makhnovia or the Kalmyks, or potentially even strike at the Afsharid borderlands. These opportunities will dry up soon, though, so Kazan needs to keep the momentum going if they want to even have a chance at contending with their many terrifying neighbors.

Orange:

The war with the Alaouites was a great success! Even getting Rabat in the peace deal. Really all they could’ve wanted there, and it keeps the Faroes out of West Africa. Things are once again looking pretty good for Peters, now I guess they gotta build up and then take on K-B again.

Leman:

Singapore didn’t do a whole lot on screen, but they did a lot behind the scenes. They settled a city and had a huge military bulk up. Singapore now has more troops than Goguryeo. They don’t quite have anyone to point that massive military towards just yet but a round two against Dai Viet or Noongar would be deadly. They could, in theory, put it to use by taking on that random Maldives city that Harappa still has or bully Vijayanagaran Sri Lanka, but Singapore will have a tough time getting their massive military over there. It’s not out of the question though. Singapore picked up exploration and has Galleons now – just unlikely.

Msurdej:

Good news for Trajan, they have a new city. Gyor falls to the Romans, and has a great defensible position against Royal Hungary. While this is good, there is a dark cloud on the horizon. Pontus has carracks now, which puts Rome at a disadvantage in the sea. It’s not an insurmountable one though, and Rome could still make more gains against Royal Hungary.

Rosay:

Siam is kind of an oddball in how they are simultaneously stronger than most if not all of their neighbors, but since their terrain is so shit they can’t really start an invasion. Though if you can’t take cities by force you can take them with strategic peace deals, with Siam managing to take a city off of the Khoshuts for basically free. Well at least the pen can still be mightier than the sword.

ECH:

The jocks of the Tarim - elected to lead, not to read - continue on their path of all carpet, low science. With an effective science rate of 144 they have the lowest rate in the entire top half of the rankings; in fact, you have to go to Kamen-Bornu back at 31st to find worse. That may be a distraction though as the greater question, probably responsible for their mild drop this week alongside churn, is the worry of where they can go from here, or more worryingly if they’re going into hibernation once again. Galdan certainly has options: Mongolia would be a hard but worthy fight across their favored terrain; Shang may be free cities if the resistance we saw in one city is any indication; and of course Bukhara, for all their pluck, really ought to be a pushover with the sheer numerical advantage the Dzungars have… and yet they’re not taking these chances, and flopping hard when they have in the past. The Selkups recovering their strength just North of them is undoubtedly a huge issue, as a civ in contention for the number 2 spot as of this writing.

CelestialDalek:

Mongolia is one of the very few civs on the cylinder that is not at war. Perhaps they’re gearing up for another attack on Shang. If they do, they are well-prepared: their science jumped by over 60% this part, they have the 8th best production on the cylinder, and decent other stats. They suffer from the same problem as the Dzungars, but even more acute: it’s hard to see how they can break out while sandwiched between the Selkups and Goguryeo, even if they do eat Shang.

Leman:

Latvia is weird. They have great stats. There’s no denying that. But I feel like they never quite perform how I expect a civ with those kinds of stats should? Like they dropped a city to Kazan and are not doing super great against Makhnovia, despite eclipsing both of those civs in basically every stat. They can focus on Makhnovia now that their other wars are over, but given Latvia’s history, I kind of don’t expect them to make major gains. Even though on paper, I think they should.

JDT:

At this point I’m convinced Mexico is using their conscripts for a internal drug war or something rather than actually intending for them to go to war. They still have the biggest army in the cylinder and above average science. However, their mediocre production and unwillingness to DO SOMETHING have greatly diminished their prospects. Even worse is the fact that the easiest target of the Taino really requires a good navy to hammer down, a navy Mexico doesn’t have as most of their resources are in the army, an army that has to get through the Sierra Madre or the Amazon and Darien to get any direct tangible results without naval support. See what I’m talking about? -2 points.

Reformer:

New Holland keeps up the grueling fight against Tiwanaku (immediately better than Ecuador). Progress has been scant, and the losses are high. But determination will yield fruit. The worst decision would be to give up, and return to the painful status quo that reigned before the coalition war. So NH must keep pressing on. Eventually Tiwanaku will break…right?

ECH:

For those unaware, the Gahtie UB unlocked by Rijkuo-maja a couple episodes back, and clearly widely built by now, is a university replacement which gives Science from Deer, Furs, and Fish instead of Jungle alongside boosting great people accumulation for each specialist slot worked. With this in hand, Ume-Sami has shot up to third on the cylinder for effective science, which overtakes the pace of their foremost threat Faroes (although they have a while to go to overtake their 38 tech count). With a slow start, the Scandi civ needs to scramble any advantage it can in stats for sure, but one would also advise they look into what practical actions they can take at this point… ~cough cough~ WAR FINNS ~cough~

Nathanmasse:

Bora fans breathe a collective sigh of relief and groan of disappointment.  Wahgi’s navy went from laughing stock to existential threat in record time and Bora was frankly lucky to get away with only losing one city.  At almost the same time, Bora decided to cement their four-city gain from Tiwanaku and end that war, even if Omo is razed as a result.  They could have kept this war going to sweep up the rest of Tiwanaku’s pacific colonies but perhaps it was best for Bora to stop and regroup for the time being.  It will always be easy to seize these cities in the future and may deter Tiwanaku from ideas of taking Bora’s South American cities.

On the plus side, Bora-Bora now has Navigation which gives them the most advanced naval units anywhere in cylinder, Frigates and Privateers, as well as seaports which will help improve their production.  With an episode or two to build up their new navy they will be able to strike anywhere in the Pacific and perhaps even further if they really put their mind to it.

Nathanmasse:

Things are looking up for Tiwanaku and they jump seven ranks as a result.  Ecuador drops out of the war with nothing much to show for it. Meanwhile, Bora-Bora peaces out and razes Omo allowing Tiwanaku the chance to resettle and mitigate the loss of that city.  Now it is just New Holland standing against them and they have had a pretty dismal track record in this war.  I am honestly surprised at how well Tiwanaku has been able to hold out from the all-out war with their neighbors and they have certainly earned their place in the top 12.

ECH:

Thule suffer a hefty drop in confidence on the back of their unnecessary handover of Ivujivik on Victoria Island in the Pueblo peace deal, as a result losing 4 places and dropping below their rivals the Yellowknives, as will be discussed more with them. Now, is this rank decline a bit hasty over one 7-pop city? Well, if that was the start and end of it, perhaps, but of course it isn’t. Once upon a time, the common wisdom was that Thule had a good amount of expansion options that, while maybe not easy, were at least not difficult either: taking a naval stance and pushing across the Bering Strait into Nivkh or pushing into the war-weary Yellowknives and from there into the weak Crow and North America at large. By now, these options have shrunk: Goguryeo’s domineering position makes holding a few colonies on the coast seem difficult and easy pickings at worst; while the equalizing of Yellowknives with them has made war with them a testy proposition, likely a grind with Thule’s exclaves certain losses in the short term at best. But what else can they do now? With Yellowknives also taking a science lead, the worst thing they could do is sit and wait…

ECH:

There is, in a sense, something petty and impatient about dropping Saba-D’mt like this, given nothing about why they were given 6th last week has changed. Their stats remain pretty great, 12th in the infoaddict ranks, only dropping one spot despite 2 civs surging past them, so essentially staying level. Ultimately, it’s the fact that we know Makeda can go wild when their golden age UA kicks in, but in the meantime they’re just resting, doing little of anything we’ll be impressed by. The fact that one of their rivals for the champion of Africa title, Sierra Leone, finished up a war and is on a rebuild phase may also help in shaping their rank decline, but perhaps that’s a bit arbitrary.

ECH:

For the first time since Episode 3, Yellowknives have risen above their existential rival Thule! This has been a long road back, from a nadir rank of 25th in the aftermath of the disastrous Crow war, at which point Thule was 12 ranks above them and I along with many others worried the Great Bear Lake civ was just food for the Arctic Circle power. To be fair to us then, this top 10 position is entirely a product of stat boosting and internal development, it has been a long time since we’ve seen them at war… but we have seen Thule, and they lost a city over nothing. Given the city location composition between the two, war would have a tilt towards Yellowknives gains for sure in my estimation. A declaration of war on either Thule or, as a starter, the Crow would be very welcome to keep the momentum going in North America, and one can’t escape the sense that eventually, both empires will merge in one way or another to rival the southern power of Pueblo.

Reformer:

The Afsharids come out of a golden age and spend the episode just vibing, really. Theoretically they should be fighting Vijayanagara but apparently the war’s so inactive that it wasn’t even worth showing off in the episode. Either way, the loss of stats from the end of their golden age definitely hit harder than expected, dropping them down to 18th in stats. It’s not like they’re lackluster - they’re just slow to make gains, as they always have. Obviously they’re still a contender. Obviously. But sloth is not the trait of a winner. A winner has grit, heart, clutch, momentum, and wants it more. And I’m not sure if Nader Shah really wants it more than everyone else. We shall see.

Msurdej:  The Palawa v Noongar war continues to rage across Australia, but we left the episode on a heck of a cliffhanger. Mulka has been besieged by Palawa forces, taking Noongar off guard. While it remains to be seen if the city will fall into Tarenorerer’s hands, this was certainly not one of the cities we predicted being attacked in this war.

Rosay:

Yup this is the part that secures Zheng into the top 10, well within it too. Zheng’s had non stop momentum after smelling Maguindanao’s blood and has begun to push into Dai Vet with minimal issues. Their stats are the top 10 too so it’s not like we’re snorting raw artificial hype, as Zheng can go on conquest sprees while not endangering their core and stretching themselves thin. The only real issue Zheng has right now is that they have to share an area code with Goguryeo but Zheng even holds some advantages over them, such as weaker neighbors.

Leman:

Let’s go, Wahgi. Bora-Bora is the luckiest civ on the planet because they were able to declare peace right before Wahgi was going to roll their fleet into the Pacific and fully ruin Bora-Bora’s whole day. Bora-Bora completely overextended here and it was only by sheer luck that Wahgi didn’t completely punish them for it. Now not only does Wahgi tower atop the stats ranking with the most population, but are number two and rising in effective science, techs, and food, comfortable fourth in city count, and sixth in military manpower (production is for dorks), eclipsing all of their neighbors, including rising stars Zheng and Bora-Bora.  It’s just a matter of time before Wahgi points this fleet in someone like Singapore’s direction and they don’t get the best-timed peace treaty ever.

Cloudy:

Pueblo slips to fourth, probably because it’s been disconcertingly long since they did anything. Also, Ikko Ikki managed to snag Kauai, and their navy looks stronger than Pueblo’s. On the other hand, Pueblo’s land army is so strong that it convinced Thule, a fellow top 10 civ, to give up a city in a peace treaty for a war that barely saw any fighting, so I don’t imagine Pueblo’s position could be remotely threatened in the foreseeable future, and if anything happens to our new number 3, we could see pueblo right back up there.

Leman:

Selkups had a quiet part, but a good one. They unlocked Taverns recently and spent no time putting them up in every city they own, completely erasing their happiness issues. This casually doubled their production, and Selkups wasted no time using that production to rebuild all the units they had lost while butchering Kazakhstan. The long period of unhappiness did hurt in some ways, though. Selkups gained 0 population this episode, all of their growth being cancelled out by that long stretch of unhappiness. They’re still comfortably in fourth place though, so I don’t expect any long term damage from this.

Cloudy:

Goguryeo is currently waiting for the next phase of their expansion. With the Selkup war having ended, Gwanggaeto is no longer fighting anyone other than technically Seneca, providing an opportunity to find a new direction. Will they strike north toward Nivkh, south toward Shang, or west toward Mongolia? East doesn’t seem like a great option because Ikko Ikki actually has more troops than they do. But other options about and we have no reason to believe that the mighty Goguryeo will stop here on their quest for domination.

Orange:

We were so close to the glorious timeline that is Faroe West Africa. SO CLOSE. Well, they still could, they have the island just off the coast. But like, we were so close to it THIS PART. Now we gotta wait for the Faroes to get off their ass and attack Sierra Leone, and we all know how much trouble Trondur has with declaring relevant wars.