Power Rankings: Episode 41 – S4

ECH:

A supreme melancholy always belies the last civ to get eliminated before Total War; it’s entirely symbolic but still feels like the first person to get told the bus is full and watching them fade away in the horizon as you roll off. Then again, when you started with a prediction you’d be the 9th worst civ this season, can one complain about hitting 24th place?

As esteemed PR Leman put it simply in the Part 0 rankings to explain their placement at 52nd: “ Japanese civilizations historically do not do well.”. I envision that all future discussion of Kennyo’s run is going to debate how true that statement is in this case also, because a strong case could be made either way (although I personally lean towards the negative case). Fittingly, after some early episodes spent in the gutter of low expectations, Ikko Ikki would fittingly become one of the most consistently mid civs of the Cylinder. In fact, here’s an exceptionally niche stat for you: Over the 41 episodes they survived through, they sat in the 21st-31st range for 32 of them by my count, essentially moving from upper-mid to lower-mid throughout the season without drastically moving much outside of a range of 10.

So what did this season’s Japan actually accomplish? Well, that’s a probing question, and sadly their legacy is far more intangible than their fans would hope. For starters, they got the 5th religion in the game going on turn 40, their iconic Jodo Shinshu sect, which pairs some solid bonuses including health regen, science and growth modifiers which presumably helped Ikko surpass their deficiencies, while also allowing their uniques to matter. This has grown to become the 2nd biggest religion in both city count and followers, aided by becoming eagerly adopted by a certain major neighbour. In fact, it’s through the shared bond of Jodo Shinshu that we likely got the narrative Ikko Ikki will probably be best remembered for; their nearly-gamelong alliance with Goguryeo, even as they settled on Japan and gradually surrounded the weaker civ. It’s through this dynamic that judging Ikko Ikki’s performance gets difficult for me; they were always pretty much deadmeat from the early-midgame onwards if only Gwanggaeto desired, but he didn’t, and so Ikko Ikki was allowed to sit and tech up, remaining a civ with decent theoretical potential.

‘Potential’ is the operative word there however, as in practice despite their scientific advantage they never really made good moves, restricted by their awkward political geography and middling production. They lost to Nivkh, and barely managed a draw with Zheng. There is one exception of note, of course, one I shouldn’t need to highlight. In the greatest swan song a CBR alliance has ever seen, first Goguryeo jumped to the defence of their weaker friend in the face of a Thule invasion that looked set to devastated them; followed up by the pair jointly taking the fight to Thule lands, with Ikko Ikki expertly deploying paratroopers and advanced units to take the lead on the invasion, even snagging the eventual elimination. It’s a war that should go down in the books, and will certainly add some favorable colour to their mixed legacy. Shame about Goguryeo backstabbing them just an episode later, if they’d waited until Total War the lore would have been substantially more tragic. Sayonara, Kennyo. F.

Msurdej:  

Oh goody, the Qarmatians are alive again. Just in time for them to be killed again in Total War. I'm not a fan of zombie civs like them and Shang, so I'm excited for their demise. Or I guess...re-demise.

Cloudy:

We think the Qarmatians will die before Shang because Shang has a layer of Wahgi units around it, none of which are melee units, that will delay their death by at least one turn. The Qarmatians, on the other hand, will die on turn one of total war. Anyway, I can’t wait for these zombie civs to be gone because they really mess up our neat sheet of everyone’s historical ranks here in the Power Ranker headquarters.

Msurdej:  

On the eve of Total War, Trajan finds himself on death's door. They lost three of their cities to Sierra Leone this episode, and are down to just Antioch. While they have a decent carpet, it's likely they'll die shortly after the call of Total War. Maybe not the first turn, but by next week, you'll probably be reading Rome's eulogy.

Leman:

Well, this isn’t quite all that surprising. We all knew this was coming. Osage was completely dismantled by its longtime ally and protector, Yellowknives. Osage put up a fairly scrappy defense, given how weak they were and how strong their opponent was, but it really wasn’t much of a roadblock. Yellowknives annexed most of Osage territory, leaving them with a single island city in the Atlantic. I’d like to think this was a merciful move, saving Osage from most of the horrors of total war.  

As for Osage’s fate during Total War: I expect death in three turns at the hands of the American Reaper themselves, New Holland.

Lasqueto:

Despite somehow lasting another part, the Dzungars are fucked. Probably gonna be one of the first to die next part despite having 2 cities rather than 1. It’ll probably be the Selkups or Goguryeo that do it, but we might be in for a Yellowknife or even Osage elimination, which would be funny, so I’m here for it.

Reformer:

Bavaria’s fucked! There’s a Faroes right there, and Latvia is threatening too obviously. Latvia has even built up a carpet just in time for Total War - a pretty funny feat all things considered - which bodes increasingly poorly for Bavaria. This 𝘴𝘲𝘶𝘦𝘦𝘻𝘦 will be their downfall, and the PRs agree that this will be faster than Mogadishu’s downfall. Realistically their deaths probably won’t be that far from one another, so could go either way as the chaos of Total War unfolds. Regardless…Bavaria will just become a battleground for Faroes and Latvia. Maybe Sierra Leone will get involved, too! And hey, there’s hope still. Bavaria could snag the kill on Rome! That’d be a fun way to go out.

Reformer:

I’ll be real with you: Mogadishu was pretty cool. Yeah, I said it. You can quote me on that. Obviously, they didn’t live up to the expectations we set out for them (ranked 9th in ep 0), but they were a fun thalassocracy nonetheless, with various fun shenanigans, mostly later on admittedly. Nothing wrong with a late bloomer though. Unfortunately for Mogadishu, blooming late has pretty serious consequences on the cylinder. Total War is coming, and starting TW while already losing a war is…unfortunate, to put it mildly. Singapore’s navy will be back to harass the eastern front, Sierra Leone will strike at the Horn of Africa, and Ndongo of course will continue dismantling Mogadishu’s hard work. And who knows what the Indian Ocean branch of the Wahgi garbage patch will do. All the same we expect them to survive longer than all those civs below them. (Mostly city-states, but hey.) 17th is a pretty alright final standing to aim for, all things considered.

Leman:

Noongar gains a rank as they finally have a war with Palawa where we can call a winner. And would you look at that, Noongar, a civ that is statistically worse than Palawa in every way came out on top! They grabbed two cities and managed to look pretty good!

However, in continuing with a tradition where mid-tier civs die right after doing something very cool, Noongar is about to get completely and entirely obliterated by Wahgi.

Cloudy:

Palawa takes a big plunge before total war, not just due to positioning, but because they really took a beating during the episode itself. Despite starting the war with more firepower and an advantage on paper, Palawa threw so hard that they lost several cities to Noongar and were still losing more when total war was declared. Their lands are also carpeted with Osage units that will leave them wrecked and bleeding before they can even think about fighting their actual neighbors. And with Wahgi sitting right on top of them, we really think Palawa’s days are numbered.

ECH:

As someone who placed Zheng the lowest of all PR’s in 17th (aka only above Mogadishu in terms of civs not on one city or so), I am perhaps ill-equipped to explain Zheng’s minor rise to 14th on the eve of Total War. OK, perhaps that’s a tad inaccurate, I can explain it. Quite suddenly, Zheng has jumped up to 6th in terms of effective military score; and with the help of their Great General swarm they’ve somewhat carved into the Wahgi incursion of their lands. So yeah, that’s an explanation… just a pretty weak one if you ask me.

As far as I’m concerned, they are extraordinarily dead. Many of the civs who are stuck with endless Wahgi troops inside them at least have the advantage of better tech on their side, but Zheng has been similarly struck with debt for many episodes now, and have 4 less techs than the menace of South East Asia, including seemingly some key military techs. As such, I expect the Wahgi hordes to hit them harder than most, not helped by them bordering the Wahgi homeland, likely devastating their 6th place army. However, the big issue lies to the North. What’s the point of boasting about a 6th place somewhat outdated army when the top-tier nexus-toting 2nd largest army has you as one of it’s biggest borders? I simply do not see even a modicum of attention from Goguryeo as survivable for Koxinga, especially if Wahgi are acting as a sapping distraction; an anvil to Goguryeo’s hammer. Needless to say, good luck…

Lasqueto:

For the first time in the game, we might actually see the Ume Sami do something, if only because they have no choice. Despite having a smaller military than their neighbours, their stats are still pretty decent, and they seem to have avoided getting peacekeepered. Latvia’s army looks scary but it seems to be mostly ranged units compared to Ume’s healthy number of melee units. Their high city strength and naturally defendable position also mean they’ll be a fairly tough nut to crack. I think they might see some success playing spoiler when Latvia clashes with the Faroes. Unifying Scandinavia and taking a few border cities from Latvia both seem fairly possible, or maybe even grabbing a few cities when Bavaria implodes.

 Make no mistake, these guys have no shot at winning, but there’s still a chance they’ll do something memorable. Lord knows they’ve done nothing else before now. Of course they could just as easily just roll over and die instantly; it would be on brand.

ECH:

Even on the eve of destruction, what is Pontus if not nondescript? Simply put, Mithridates is not seen as having a chance, stuck in the crossroads of empires, and if they wanted to not be in this position then goddamn, perhaps they ought to have made some more moves before now. That all being said, Pontus is a bit of a question mark when it comes to how this first episode of Total War will go: how long will clearing out the peacekeeper slop take, and will any of the major powers they border have moved in on them by the end of the episode? I can see them anywhere from untouched to being in active collapse, which probably explains this median rank they have more than anything else.

Oh, one other thing. Perhaps more than Pontus’s actual actions and future, one element that’s been brought up by us PR’s is how much their UA is going to kick in, especially against Wahgi. As a reminder, the essential part is ‘Defeating units generates Resistance in cities controlled but not founded by the enemy, increased by training Great Generals.’. We all noted how devastating this ability was against Saba for a short while, and that was when Pontus was fighting in a very narrow theatre. With Wahgi’s peacekeepers waiting to die by the dozen? It won’t actually help Pontus much at all, but there is a chance they’ll nullify Wahgi’s production across much of the cylinder,everywhere except their core in Papua. I suppose the same potential exists for their other fronts, but I envision they pose a more significant force that can surpass and overcome a few turns of resistance…

Orange:

Alright lemme lay out the situation for Ndongo:

Ndongo has three main issues facing them right now, Sierra Leone in the north, Sierra Leone’s navy in the west, and Wahgi’s carpet in the east. So let’s break it down.

Wahgi’s carpet first, Ndongo will probably handle it fine. They are almost entirely Drone UAVs, there’s a few Mobile Sams that can take cities but they can be pretty easily dealt with. This issue is a major annoyance, but just an annoyance nonetheless. I honestly don’t really see Wahgi really being able to take more than a city but it will take some work for Ndongo to clear the lands out.

Next, Sierra Leone’s navy. Before we get to Sierra Leone as a whole we gotta talk about their navy. Because it’s big! And menacing! It largely consists of Destroyers, Missile Destroyers, and Supercarriers, the last of which doesn’t matter much. But the destroyers, being melee ships, can do a lot of damage and threaten a lot of cities. And by a lot I mean like, four. Ndongo has four coastal cities on the western and southern coasts. They also have Missile Destroyers and Supercarriers (with planes unlike Sierra Leone!) of their own, but they have a much smaller navy. This fight will be tough, but Ndongo might be able to win through the use of having planes on their ships and having only Missile Destroyers rather than a bunch of unupgraded Destroyers mixed in.

Lastly, let’s talk about the rest of Sierra Leone, cause this will be the main fight Ndongo has to face at the start of the endgame, and it decides if they sink or swim. Stats wise things are, concerning. Ndongo has one main advantage, 106 techs to 100, not much but it’s something. Sierra Leone’s 100 strength Modern Armor vs. Ndongo’s 120 strength Battlesuit in the same unit line. Ndongo is also utilizing a lot of Chimeras while Sierra Leone doesn’t seem to have any of them lying around. With that it should be noted that Sierra Leone doesn’t actually have much lying around in general, besides their fleet. Their more western cities have unit rings but the eastern ones don’t. Now, to be fair, Ndongo doesn’t have many units either, but they do have some concentration in their northwest, close to where Sierra Leone is. In the stats, the two are about equal in manpower, but Ndongo has about half when you subtract nukes and gold, both of these two will be lobbing nukes a lot though. With all that, we get to the biggest hurdle of the battle: Sierra Leone has about twice Ndongo’s production and triple their number of cities. This is, as they say, not good! The positive is that Sierra Leone has a lot more fronts to fight on, notably with the Faroes in the north, so they will be distracted, but that is still a lot of cities that they can have closer to Ndongo that can provide parity.

BUT WAIT THERE’S ONE LAST THING: There’s one big secret Ndongo has that Sierra Leone doesn’t, and that’s actually good city defenses. Yeah, Sierra Leone is still rocking sub 100 defense cities on the border, while Ndongo is sporting 190 defense behemoths. Suffice to say, Ndongo is gonna have a much easier time taking cities than Sierra Leone will, and that may go a long way to deciding who wins the continent. So good luck to Nzinga, she has real potential to pull a comeback out here.

Nathanmasse:

The Afsharids are about to find themselves in very real danger as Total War begins.  Few other civs have so compromised their position by allowing so many enemy units to run amuck in their territory.  A direct border with a few of Wahgi’s colonies allows them to bring their airforce to bear which will no doubt make it easy for their paratroopers and mobile SAMs to break into the cities in the south and east.  With their superior units and advanced tech they just might be able to hold out in west asia and around the Caspian, but even there they will be set up by all the others who will be looking for any weakness to exploit.  

At least they get to make their first move before Wahgi and can hopefully take out as many of their units as possible, but I think it will be too little too late.  Unlike Singapore or Palawa, the Afsharids have no far flung colonies they might hide in; every city is besieged and every piece of territory must be fought over immediately.  There is no other way forward.

Leman:

Latvia enters total war on the back of an upset. They’ve conquered Vagur from the Faroe Islands, something that seemed absolutely impossible. On top of that they are one of a coveted few civs that are not bordering anyone that’s finished the tech tree, giving them some semblance of safety. And they’ve managed to pump out a carpet right when it counts.  

Of course, all this means, as far as I believe, is that Latvia isn’t going to collapse like a wet paper bag. I do not think it means that Latvia is making anything of a comeback. Latvia still has problems. They only have 98 technologies, which is well behind the leaders. They have a full carpet but that still puts them weaker than their scariest neighbor Selkups. And while Latvia doesn’t border any of the scary top tiers, the Faroes are just on the other side of Europe. Ume Sami and especially Bavaria are not going to hold for long.  

My prediction, Latvia is going to have a strong start to Total War. They’re going to look good right up until the Faroes can deploy their full might in eastern Europe. Then expect things to go south fast. But that’s a few episodes away. For now, Latvia is fine.

Reformer:

Selkups fall to 8th at the eve of Total War - the lowest they’ve been in over a dozen episodes. And the reason is simple: Their economy sucks balls, and has for a long time. This has left Selkup science in the dust. BENEATH THE DUST, even. They rank EIGHTEENTH in tech, and there’s only 23 civs alive! Even Wahgi has more techs, and Wahgi has been immeasurably bankrupt for eons! Unbelievable behaviour. But I suppose such is the fate of these Siberian empires. To make up for this deficiency a bit, Selkups do have good production, a good amount of cities, and an exemplary standing army (third biggest!). Unfortunately, their production isn’t overwhelming like Wahgi’s, meaning their tech deficit will shine through even harder. Altogether, Selkups are doomed, and I would give them a 0% chance of victory. Goguryeo will likely cripple them pretty early on into Total War, is my guess. Or maybe it’ll take a while. Not sure which one is worse.

Leman:

Sierra Leone stands tall as the strongest civ in Africa. They have a massive city count and a reasonable military. But, and I bet after those last writeups you know what I’m about to say: they did not finish up the tech tree.

This puts Sierra Leone on the back foot. New Holland and Faroes are right off the coast and have much more powerful, large, and advanced militaries. If you’ll recall, this is bad. Remember Tuva? Remember Han? Remember Uzbekistan? They held the line for a little while and then buckled under the top civ’s futuristic militaries. Some civs can get lucky and weather the storm, like Brandenburg and Mali. We’ll see if Sierra Leone will be able to do that, and make gains against its weaker neighbors like Ndongo and Pontus. Or if they get completely crushed from beyond the waves.

Nathanmasse:

There is a general consensus among the power rankers that Waghi is simply too far behind in tech and too far in debt to ever recover.  But this is it; this is where Bol’im’s grand strategy is tested.  He has been waiting for hundreds of turns for this very moment.  Gone is the subterfuge that their units all over the cylinder are merely ‘peacekeepers’.  Faroe Islands, Ndongo, Pontus, Singapore, Afsharids, and Zheng have all been infiltrated and more units stand ready to move in from the neutral waters between the continents.  

The first few turns will no doubt strike fear into the hearts of civs both near and far.  Dozens of cities are on the line, but then the real war begins.  Will Bol’im’s units be overstretched for the number of cities they will be besieging?  Will they be able to reinforce and defend the many cities they are able to take?  Will their close neighbor be able to use their preemptive strike capability to drive a wedge into Bol’im’s core?  Only time will tell.

Reformer:

Singapore jumps all the way to fifth in the last episode before total war - remarkable indeed! They manage to just barely eke out Wahgi for the top five spot, despite what outwardly seems like a very lopsided state of affairs. The truth is, though, that Wahgi is as bankrupt as ever (TW might help them on their path to financial solvency, but it’ll be too little too late), while Singapore is one of four civs to finish the tech tree. That’s a 25 tech difference. No big deal…is what I’d say if I was a bumbling buffoon. Wahgi may have superior production, but superior units win out again and again when the chips are down. It will take a bit to chew through Wahgi’s existing garbage patch, but eventually Singapore can start conquering nearby technologically inferior civs - such as Wahgi’s SEA, Zheng, Noongar, and Mogadishu. Admittedly, Chewing through Zheng will put them in range of Goguryeo nexii, so maybe focus on Africa and Australia for a while. Either way, Singapore has great opportunities comparatively, and a genuine chance (albeit slim) to snag victory from the jaws of defeat. It will require adept maneuvering of the geopolitical landscape of the Total War era cylinder, and tactical genius, but it is possible. The same cannot be said for Wahgi. And that is why Singapore gets a spot on the Council of Five.

Cloudy:

New Holland’s biggest threat out of the gate will be Wahgi. Wahgi South America is heavily carpeted, albeit with outdated units, and New Holland’s lands are shockingly empty. However, the Yellowknives have the same problem, and most of their other neighbors are too far away to be an immediate threat, so if New Holland can pump out its endgame units fast enough to overcome Wahgi’s initial zerg rush, then they’ll be in a very good position to seek world domination. We think they could follow in the footsteps of Season 2’s Marajoara, if not Mk. II’s Brazil, but the first few turns of total war could decide everything.

Orange:

I feel like I should write more for YK then I did for Ndongo, but honestly their position feels less interesting to analyze. They are by far one of the strongest powers going into total war, they’ve maxed the tech tree and have a lot of cities with great production. Their main issue comes from them not having that big of an army, but this is something that can be resolved rather quickly by their production, at the cost of a few outer cities.

So let’s discuss their enemies:

They are in the unlucky position of having no easy neighbors, they are surrounded by Gogurt, the Faroes, and New Holland, the other top dogs. None of the others have to deal with this and they all have easier targets in places. Gogurt probably won’t be able to do that much, by the time Gogurt produces units and sends them over YK can probably build up their own defensive force. New Holland has some open colonies but their Caribbean holdings are pretty strong and have units, so could do some damage to YK’s underside if Akaitcho isn’t careful.

The real challenge will be the Faroes. Wait did I say Faroes I meant Wahgi. Yeah, Wahgi. The Faroese North American lands are filled to the brim with Wahgi troops. Will they be able to do anything? Well it’s hard to say, but they will probably end up fighting with the Faroes first and allow YK to slide in after the Faroes have been pummeled down a bit. The other point of Wahgi concern is the Mexican colony, and in general the potential for ships to move through the Pacific to the southern cities. YK has barely any troops down there while Wahgi has that carpet in their colony, but the good part is that those are kinda shit units while YK has 250 defense cities in Mexico. So they can honestly probably just withstand it and build a couple super powerful units and defend well enough.

So with all that, I’m very optimistic for the Yellowknives, and honestly I think the game is between them and Gogurt.

NopeCopter:

Despite a rather embarrassing war against Latvia, the Faroes hold onto their second-place spot going into Total War, and it’s not hard to see why. The big reason is their stats, or more specifically, their Production: only the Wahgi come close, and the Wahgi don’t have a completed tech tree like the Faroes do. The Faroes’ Food output is similarly sky-high, at least until the nukes start flying. Oh, and they’re in possession of some of the most important Wonders in the game, most notably Skynet. Couple all of that with a lack of immediately threatening neighbors around their core, and the Faroes are looking strong enough that some would even put them in first.So, what’s keeping the Faroes down? There are a few things, actually. First and most noticeable is that massive Wahgi peacekeeper carpet covering their lands. While nobody in the PR team expects the Faroese cities to even take much damage from these units, the real trouble comes from the pillaging they could potentially do, the time and effort required to clear them out, and perhaps most importantly, all the Faroese units that AREN’T on those tiles. The Faroes should be able to bounce back without much issue, but they will be starting Total War with a much smaller military than they’d really like. This is particularly troublesome around Iberia and Quebec, where Sierra Leone and the Yellowknives could potentially take advantage of the unit vacuum to take an early lead on the front lines. But on top of that, people are quite worried about whether the Faroes will really be able to make gains even after the peacekeepers are gone. They did manage to lose a city to Latvia last episode, after all, and the Ume Sami are looking like an absolute fortress, too - and if the Faroes are struggling with them, how are they going to fare against the bigger powers? As a final note, while the Faroese treasury is far from empty, it is slowly draining, and they don’t have nearly as much money in reserve as the other top players.

Still, you’d be foolish to count out a Faroese victory. They’re one of only a few civilizations to have completed the tech tree, their raw stats surpass even the Wahgi, they have either footholds on or easy access to North America, mainland Europe, and West Africa, and even their slower start isn’t a huge issue when nobody else looks remotely prepared for Total War… few things are certain at this point in the game, but it would take a truly monumental amount of luck and effort for the Faroes to not be one of the last civs standing.

NopeCopter:

Goguryeo keeps a fairly decisive hold on the top spot going into Total War, but the only thing the PRs agree on more than Goguryeo’s placement is its precariousness. Goguryeo does not look nearly as good on the ground as one would hope - their military is fairly small as always, and their city defenses are abysmal for a top power, their Production and Food outputs are lagging behind the Faroes and Wahgi. So… why are they first? For one thing, nobody else really looks better. The Faroes are carpeted in Wahgi units and are also just kind of pathetic, New Holland hasn’t even finished the tech tree, the Yellowknives are low on units and trapped in North America, Singapore has very few cities and a Wahgi carpet of their own, and the Wahgi are so broke and so far behind in techs that they’re likely to be more impactful in death than in life. But there are more reasons to believe Goguryeo is coming out on top than just having slim pickings.

Goguryeo, like every other civ worth considering, has completed the tech tree, and their economy and Happiness are both solid. They’re second in military manpower (only behind the ineffectual Wahgi), they’re still third in Food and Production, and they have the highest city count of any civ on the cylinder. But the real advantages of the Wahgi are the ones they have on the ground. Unlike many other major powers, Goguryeo has no Wahgi units in their borders - instead, they have multiple relatively vulnerable invasion targets. While the Selkups might not seem like easy pickings, they’re sitting at an abysmal 89 techs (that’s lower than Mogadishu), and that’s not improving any time soon. Zheng is also lacking in techs, and while their military score isn’t bad, they also have a bunch of Wahgi peacekeepers in their lands that will leave them wide open once they’re cleared out. In short, Goguryeo has two giant, weak, juicy chunks of cities to dig into, with only the Yellowknives nearby to really contest them on equal footing. But the real prize is their proximity to the Wahgi. While the Wahgi are sure to put up a hell of a fight, their cities will almost certainly fall to someone eventually, and whoever gets their capital (and Maguindanao’s capital, too) will score a whole lot of nice Wonders. Nothing gamebreaking, but a whole lot of big Food and Production bonuses are at stake there. And aside from Singapore, Goguryeo is in the best position to take those treasures for themselves, provided they can bust through Zheng quickly enough. As a final note, Goguryeo also seems to be building Nexi, which is always a good sign for a potential CBR winner.

Now, again, Goguryeo’s major advantages are significantly hampered by their lack of units and the uphill battle they’ll be fighting with regards to city strength. Within a couple of episodes, something could change, and Goguryeo could be decidedly on the back foot. But all things considered, I’d give Goguryeo slightly better odds than their competition, and it seems the rest of the PR team agrees. Nothing is certain in Total War, least of all at the beginning, but Goguryeo seems just a bit more likely than the rest to take it all for themselves.