Episode 04: The Irony of Fate – S1

Welcome back to Groundhog Day—wait, you’re telling me this is the civ battle royale?

Hello everyone, it’s Admiral_Cloudberg here, creator of the Groundhog Day AI game (now on its 11th mark), power ranker, and analyzer of plane crashes. If you liked last part’s narration, you might not like this as much. But if you didn’t like it then you might like this more. It’s the eternal balancing act of every narrator—more narrative or more analysis? But worry not—no matter which one you prefer, this will surely be a part full of excitement for all manner of readers.*

*Disclaimer: I have not read the part yet.

P.S. I tried to make a pun with “Never gonna let you down” but I couldn’t think of any.

Coiot: In Enigma-Conundrum's OC, Nathaniel the Silversmith breaks down the exit polls from the latest HRE election err usurping. Bismarck may have been ousted, but a man of the people will soon rise to power.

For our original content this week, I highly recommend everyone check out Dawkinzz’ very own modified Stranger Things intro and credits scene, wherein strange stirrings from Tierra del Fuego are foreshadowed...

Those of you who like my analytical narration will probably also enjoy this tile accurate map by DerErlenkonig, who painstakingly reviews the video to determine exactly which tiles are owned by which civs. Note the conspicuous lack of Xia green.

And for those who are more artistically inclined, here’s SphericalMelon’s distinctively non-melon-shaped Melon Map, which manages to make Europe look like even more of a clusterfuck than it already is.

The civs seem to playing hot potato with the number one spot so far, as this part it bounces back to Zimbabwe, who held it after part 1. The Khamug Mongols, who were number one last time, slip back to second—but it won’t take much for them to reclaim the top spot.

Now, on to the action! As many predicted after part 3, the Seljuqs do indeed recapture Rey from Oman. Note that this screenshot was grabbed from during the turn, so we see the exact moment that the city flipped, before the borders had even updated. However, Oman has a trireme coming up the Persian Gulf which could help flip it back. Also noteworthy: Oman joins the Nubia dogpile, although they may just be doing this to get on the good side of the African civs. They’ll be more likely to let Oman have Zanzibar that way. And on top of that, Palmyra has made peace with the Seljuqs despite failing to capture any cities. PLUS, this stuff just keeps going folks, the Seljuqs have founded Nishapur in a very nice defensive location.

The Iroquois have had Vancouver down to 0 HP since last part, and no a melee unit is only two turns away from the city! Fortunately, Canada has founded Winnipeg to make up for the impending loss of Vancouver. Unfortunately, anyone familiar with either city would know that this is not a fair trade.

The Shang, presumably living on in the form of a scout attending ScoutCon, have made peace with Canton. Fat lot of good it’ll do ‘em.

Meanwhile, Shikoku’s invasion of Korea seems to have reached a hesitant stalemate. Seonjo has one melee unit nearby, but can he move it next to Pyongyang to retake it? Many long years of watching the civ 5 AI says probably not.

By the way, I’ve been informed that the two religions founded this turn are the Iroquois and Beta Israel. No word on what religions they chose or what the beliefs are.

(Lime’s note: The Iroquois found Orenda while Beta Israel found Judaism. Beliefs will have to wait)

The Moors continue to expand up the west coast of France, founding Saraqustah (a.k.a. Zaragoza) near real life Nantes. A Holy Roman settler appears to have just barely lost the race to settle this area, and a Venetian settler is already turning around in resignation. Western France firmly belongs to the caliphate, at least for now.

Here we have a classic case of Algeria being incompetent. The siege of Benghazi is going well, except for the fact that Abdelkader has no melee units anywhere nearby. Wasn’t this supposed to be Nubia’s problem? Anyway, if the war continues like this, both civs will be worse off.

Ah yes, this is the theatre everyone was waiting for. Haiti continues to hold Caracas in yellow HP, but Toussaint L’Ouverture seems to be splitting his navy to attack Maracaibo at the same time. This is not a great plan, if you ask me—his army and navy are only just big enough to take Caracas even if he ignores all other targets.

A smattering of Ndongo units filters into Nubian territory in the vicinity of Meroe, where they will presumably be slaughtered at the hands of Piye’s special archers. Nzinga had better watch out, since the last scene in part 3 showed a large Zimbabwean army ready to invade her southern border while half her army is wandering in the Sudan.

While Australia builds up its fourth and fifth cities, Papua has finally founded its third. It bears the rather menacing name of Boera—most likely a futile attempt to conjure a little bit of the strength of Mk. 2’s Boers. Of course, we all know what ultimately happened to them.

Here’s a look at the current position of Zimbabwe’s vast army, as well as their new city of Nhunguza (possibly my favourite city name on the map right now, and I have no idea why). Terrain is on Nzinga’s sid in the event of a war, but would she be able to hold off the horde?

Down in South America, Uruguay is shifting its large army around while perhaps considering a strike against the Selk’nam. But would Lavalleja be able to breach the Andes? I certainly have my doubts. I think he jinxed himself the moment he decided not to settle Ciudad de la Costa on the coast.

As the contestants take their next turn, we intercept a bold declaration of war by Czechia against Venice! Enrico Dandolo is probably protected by the Alps, but the size of Vaclav Havel’s army suggests that a city trade in the peace deal is not out of the question.

The war between the Kazakhs and the Nenets remains stalemated amid the dense Siberian boreal forests. Seems to me that Ablai Khan would do best to cut his losses here and prepare for war with Parthia instead.

Side note: I believe the wonder that Prussia built is Templo Mayor, which increases the production of other wonders by 15%, and includes an engineer specialist slot.

Parthia and the Kazakhs continue to settle in each other’s faces, as Ablai Khan plops down Otrar near the Amu Darya River and Mithridates settles something completely unreadable right in front of another Kazakh settler. War between these two seems inevitable, but neither side appears to be mustering their forces right now.

We have a major new war in China on our hands! Ching Shih cannot tolerate Ying Zheng’s rapid expansion into what she doubtlessly considers to be her rightful territory, so she declares war on Qin. Canton has quite the army ready to besiege Yueyang, but Qiongshi is wide open. We could see both sides gaining cities in this war. There’s also the question of whether that Qin settler can plant itself before Canton wipes it out.

My goodness, the Khamug army is ferocious! They don’t even have enough room in their territory to keep all the units! That said, Cixi is making sure that Qing won’t look like an easy target. Her cities have walls and her army is nothing to shake a stick at either.

Nepal and India both make peace with Maratha after a fruitless war, during which their enemy spammed cities with impunity. Next thing we know, Nepal and India will probably be back at war with each other, while Maratha continues to eat up more and more of the Indian subcontinent.

Background note: Oman has made peace with the Seljuqs, without recapturing Rey. Shameful from Saif bin Sultan—he really could have taken that back.

Bold move from the Nazca! Cahuachi must have concluded that if the Kuikuro can build unconquerable cities in the Amazon, so can he. Only problem is, he has to worry about the Kuikuro, who won’t be happy with this at all. Anetü doesn’t have a big amy, but it’s surely big enough to take Paredones.

The Vikings are working to fill out Scandinavia as quickly as they can, settling Västerås well inland. Two more settlers are headed out to settle more cities in Sweden. Ragnar is doing well to lock the Sami out of this area, because if Eadni got here first, the Vikings wouldn’t have much room left to expand. On the other hand, Viking fans should be worried that Ragnar doesn’t appear to have built a single boat yet.

Also worth noting: Muscovy declared war on Qin, similar to Qing’s earlier long-distance war declaration against Prussia. Is this a sign of a coalition forming against Ying Zheng?

Madagascar continues to field one of the smallest armies on the cylinder, although it’s not like they need much in the way of military right now. Also, another settler has appeared—could it be headed for the mainland? If so, Ranavalona will need to build an army ASAP!

Daily reminder that the primary language of Madagascar is Malagasy, which is related to the languages spoken by Sulu and Tonga, and not any of the African civs. Stone age migration patterns were kinda weird.

We drop in while the turn is processing to observe that Songhai has capped off its evisceration of Algeria with a timely peace treaty, in which Abdelkader has given away Mascara. Algeria therefore lost more than half its cities in this war—by that measure, the second worst defeat after the Xia/Shang. Although it’s not like I didn’t warn you folks that Algeria REALLY likes to give away cities for no reason.

Also, the siege of Benghazi has collapsed utterly. I have to say, even I didn’t think Libya would come out on top of this one, but now there’s at least a chance.

Over in Southeast Asia, Taungoo’s expansion burst is quite clearly over, and Ching Shih has capitalized on this by settling Sum Chen in Vietnam. It’s a good spot—lots of rivers and plenty of resources. But she’ll want to make sure she stays on Bayyinnaung’s good side.

Scotland finally uses some of its wandering setters and founds St. Andrews and Stirling in just about the only spots they could have gone for. This will help keep them on par with the Manx, but they should have done this ages ago.

Also, I have been informed that the religion in the background was founded by Nubia.

(Lime: It’s Amanaiism)

Over in China, Qin have managed to found Quanqiu in between Qiongshi and the rest of Canton, all but ensuring that Ching Shih’s loses her recent city capture. That said, she could pick up Quanqiu pretty easily. But the terrain around Yueyang is proving troublesome, and no progress has been made there.

I shed a tear when I saw this. Haiti has agreed to a peace deal offered by Hugo Chavez just a few turns before Haiti would have taken Caracas. If nothing else, this serves as a harsh reminder of why everyone was saying Haiti’s AI is bad. They had a chance to dominate their scarier neighbour, and they totally blew it. Will they ever get another chance? I wouldn’t put money on it.

Ndongo continues to pour a surprisingly large army up through Central Africa toward Nubia. I’m amazed Zimbabwe hasn’t declared war on them yet. Nzinga is really pushing her luck here—if I were her, I’d make peace with Nubia ASAP, maybe try to bargain a city out of them, and they focus everything on defending the border with Zimbabwe.

Australia has settled Hobart up in the arid northwest and has another settler headed to the Cairns region. Settling there would finish the job of boxing in the Murri, all but preventing Gambu Ganuurru from ever expanding again. The Murri have a settler on its way, but it looks like Billy Hughes will get there first. And if he does... well, the Murri are FUCKED. Pardon my French.

Cixi seems to be sending her settler way up toward the frozen wastes of the Chukotka Peninsula. What does she see up there? Does she have her eyes on the Yup’ik? Or is she sending them here as punishment? Are we witnessing the birth of the gulag?

Part way through the next turn, we see that the Iroquois have, as expected, captured Vancouver. They weren’t very efficient about it, but that matters little now that the deed is done. Canada continues to look utterly pathetic, and now that Hiawatha can focus entirely northward, Toronto might be in trouble. I also wonder—where are the Iroquois going with that settler?

In a surprising turn of events, it seems that the Apache are not plotting to attack the Métis, despite what it looked like last part. Rather, they’re heading deeper into the rocky mountains. Surely Geronimo doesn’t think he can conquer the Haida? That would be a total disaster.

Note the Yup’ik settler, which is heading down into real life Montana, and may be going even farther. I’m curious to know where it finally ends up.

As you may have seen, the Isle of Man has declared war on the Holy Roman Empire! Iliam Dhone appears to be trying a naval attack, but Regensburg and Cologne, the nearest targets, are not on the coast. I don’t think his navy is big enough to take Vienna, the nearest HRE coastal city, so I’d expect this war to fly back in Iliam’s face. His navy would much more easily capture St. Andrews if he had decided to declare war on Scotland instead.

Here’s a view of the Ottomans’ new invasion of the Czech Republic, in which we see that Mehmed II is quite possibly the first civilization to invent the composite bowman. It’s also the first time that we have a war that rehashes an earlier one, as far as I know. Mehmed once again appears to have the advantage in the Second Ottoman-Czech War, but we know how he blew it last time around, so who knows what the outcome will be.

Also, take a look at Anatolia! Palmyra has settled Birtha, which is just Bursa with a lisp and is clearly intended to mock the Ottomans. Not only that, Zenobia has no less than three additional settlers headed out—that’s nuts!

Back to China! Cities are taking damage in multiple locations as Qin close in on Qiongshi, and Canton attempts to mount a counteroffensive against Quanqiu. I would give Qin the upper hand though, because Qiongshi is going to be impossible for Ching Shih to defend, while Ying Zheng has a chance to hold Quanqiu. (I just love all the civs and cities beginning with Q.)

At long last, Algeria and Libya declare peace. The failed Algerian siege of Benghazi took a harsh toll on both civilizations, and both are looking rather worse for wear. I would say our chances of having a North African powerhouse like Carthage was in the early eras of Mk. 2 are virtually gone—not that there’s really anyone nearby who could wipe them out at this stage.

Random thought: I’m just now noticing how fat Italy is. What an absolute unit

A new war erupts in the Middle East as Palmyra declares war on Oman! Saif bin Sultan already screwed up once this part by making peace with the Seljuqs before retaking Rey. If he cedes Nakhal to Palmyra, that would make two major blunders. He probably has the army to defend it, but Zenobia has the advantage of surprise, and the flat terrain works in her favour. Some of my fellow rankers were getting a little cocky about Oman last part—I’d like to see their faces now...

Another turn passes in China, and it becomes even more clear that Qin is going to win this war. Qiongshi is down to red, while Canton has made no progress on Quanqiu. Ying Zheng simply cannot tolerate someone else stealing his kill, and he’ll be damned if he won’t try to take every last Canton city so he can at least get the Xia in his kill tree!

I have also been informed that the religion that was founded this turn belongs to the Murri. That means that all 14 religions have been founded!

(Lime: They found Tjukurpa)

Muscovy is still trying to beat down the walls of Danzig, but a contingent of Prussian archers is going to make that very, very difficult. If the Sami were to commit to their war with Prussia it might be a different story, but there’s no sign that Eadni is moving any troops toward the front.

The Sami and Muscovy both have settlers visible here (and the Sami also recently founded Romsa). It’s good that Ivan is still thinking about expanding, because if he doesn’t expand up into northern Russia, he’ll be encircled by the Goths in no time.

New Zealand really dropped the ball last part. If they had ignored Gunnedah and focused their navy on Cavanbah, they could have captured it, making them the second civ to take a capital. But no... they split their forces and exhausted themselves. I had high hopes for New Zealand going into this royale, and so far they are not quite living up to them. Anyway, they are still at war, so a second assault is possible—but right now Seddon is just engaging a couple of Murri ships in a minor skirmish, and there’s no sign of a larger navy building up for another try.

Side note: Australia looks like its settler is finally in position to cut off the Murri for good.

We get an action shot from the middle of the turn as Qin easily capture the defenseless city of Qiongshi! Ching Shih may have started the war, but she probably regrets it now. She won’t even be able to take the city back in the future because Ying Zheng is razing it to the ground.

You can also see here that Qin have unlocked their unique composite bowman replacement, the Qin Nu, which is essentially a siege unit. It deals extra damage to cities but has to be set up before firing (like a catapult) and starts with the logistics promotion (allowing it to shoot twice in one turn). This fearsome unit could help Qin dominate China early, if they use it right.

In West Africa, Songhai has picked up the pieces from its war with Algeria and is working to turn its gains into a productive part of its empire. However, Algeria is not done—another settler is heading down to settle Senegal! I doubt Askia will stand for that, and another war might lurk in the near future for these two civilizations.

Ndongo and Beta Israel both found new cities while Zimbabwe’s army continues to look threatening. However, it seems to moving in a northerly direction—is Nyatsimba Mutota also going to attack Nubia? That’s a long way to send an army that large, especially with all the terrain, units, and cities in the way. If this is really what he’s doing, then he’s really not very smart at all. The clear path is to attack Ndongo, and I’m not sure he’s doing it.

Also, Gudit’s new city is a pretty nice one, since it nets her Kilimanjaro.

On the next turn we have a very important new war! And it’s not going the way some people thought it would. Yes, the Kazakhs have declared war on Parthia, and they’ve brought the Golden Horde along for the ride. Or maybe that’s the other way around, since it doesn’t seem like Ablai Khan has prepared for this at all. He still hasn’t made peace with the Nenets, and he hasn’t assembled an army on his very long border with Parthia. Worse still, Parthia has its UU chariot archer replacement that has more strength (but less range), ignores enemy zone of control, and can move after attacking. The Kazakhs need to get an army in here, stat. That said, if they do conjure a defensive force, it would be pretty easy for them to turn around and go on the attack. Although they won’t be getting much help from the horde, which can’t reach any Parthian cities.

A wider view of Parthia shows that Mithridates is well-prepared for a quick offensive against Otrar—although he’ll have to watch his melee unit supply, since it’s a little low. Warriors don’t grow on trees, and vending machines haven’t been invented yet.

Also, it looks like India is about to settle a city up in the Hindu Kush. That would be a very defensible spot, and I’d call it a good idea.

Oman’s meagre defensive force around Nakhal cuts and runs as Palmyra bears down on the city. With a measly 11 defense strength and a sea of Palmyrene units rapidly approaching, the city is already taking damage and should go down in a couple of turns. It seems as though Oman expanded too quickly without building an army capable of defending its widely stretched empire.

IT’S HAPPENING!! (Dawkinzz please put the gif in your video)

Yes, Madagascar has settled mainland Africa! This didn’t even happen in a lot of the test rounds; sometimes they would get stuck on their island and do nothing the whole game. But for the real thing, they’re not letting that happen. The settlement of Fihaonana is small and weak, but if Ranavalona can defend it against Zimbabwe for a while, it will grow into a great base of operations for further conquests on the continent.

Moving ahead to the next turn, it’s more apparent than ever that Ndongo’s long-distance invasion force has all but disintegrated. The AI is not great at long-distance attacks because their units tend to get strung out in a line, and then they don’t reconsolidate them before attacking—they just send them in one at a time. This is clearly what’s happening here; Nzinga is just hemorrhaging units for no reason.

Also on this slide, Beta Israel is still playing catch-up, founding a fourth city on the coast of the Red Sea quite close to Nubia.

The Iroquois continue to toy around with poor, poor William Meckenzie King. They’ve finally got enough units through to seriously damage Toronto, and if they keep this up the city will fall. That said, there isn’t much in the way of reinforcements if Canada were to kill their melee units. King, meanwhile, is sending a lone spearman on a suicidal mission to Onondaga itself. Goodspeed, you fools.

On the settling front, Hiawatha’s settler that was seen by Toronto earlier this part is now headed along the Ohio River, which would be a pretty nice place to settle.

Returning to the new war between Parthia and the Kazakhs, we can see that Mithridates is rapidly surrounding Otrar with archers and Shivatirs, but hasn’t started actually attacking the city yet. As long as he can keep that warrior alive, it’s almost certain to fall. But that’s a big if. I’ve spent so much time watching the AI move units around that I can predict any individual unit’s probable path with something like 50% accuracy, and experience tells me that they’re probably going to slam it against the city. And then it’ll be killed on the next turn.

Muscovy has placed its settler in a conservative location close to Moscow on the edge of the tundra. But Ivan the objectively terrible needs to get some more settlers ASAP, because in the bottom left part of the scene, the Goths have two more settlers visible—and there’s really only one direction they can send them. Every inch of land settled by the Goths is one inch less that is available to Muscovy. Also, fun observation: the Kazakh military is heavily concentrated in the Urals, nowhere near anything.

The empty lands between the Iroquois and Poverty Point are ripe for the taking, and based on Hiawatha’s settler, he’s going to get there first. Poverty Point hasn’t built a single settler all game, and the only reason they’re not total trash is because they managed to conquer a city instead. But that won’t exactly cut it when the Iroquois are gearing up to spam cities into Táhera’s neighbourhood.

We also have a good view of the big green effigy mound next to Jaketown. For those who don’t know what that is, an effigy mound can be built once per era by Poverty Point’s unique great prophet, the Fox Man. When an effigy mound is built, Poverty Point can pick a new “spirit guardian” that watches over their civilization and picks various bonuses, and change the yields of effigy mounds. Right now they apparently have the Old Man Above, which makes religious units cheaper and increases the faith yield of effigy mounds. Too bad all the religions were already founded, making this mostly useless.

Finally we get a complete overview of Venice! Enrico Dandolo has settled Lido in real life Croatia, while he continues to avoid the Italian Peninsula. That said, he does have another settler finally headed down toward Rome. Minoa already owns land in Italy, but if Venice can crank out another settler or two, they should be able to fully claim the peninsula before it’s too late.

Also on this slide, The HRE has settled Switzerland, and the Czech Republic has another settler, although it’s not clear where they’ll put it. And the Ottomans are damaging Ostrava, while Vaclav Havel has built walls in the city to make it even harder to capture.

FUCKING OUCH, that hurts even more than stepping on a lego. No joke.

Canton gives up on its war without even trying to capture Quanqiu, and actually gives away Hong Kong in the peace treaty! AND, on top of all that, Qin decides to burn the 9 pop city to the ground. This is a total disaster for Canton front which I don’t expect them to ever recover. This should also serve as a warning to anyone else thinking of eliminating a civ early in the game. What happened to Canton could happen to you! (Although, Canton started the war, so maybe it’s their own hubris...)

New Zealand is still throwing ships at the Murri, but Seddon really needs to pull back and assemble a large, cohesive navy. What he’s doing right now is just wasting ships by throwing them into the battle two or three at a time.

Also, the Murri now have two more settlers, but Australia has settled Darwin, all but cutting them off. They could still squeeze through the gap west of Meanjin, but will they do so in time?

Palmyra storms the streets of Nakhal, sending Omani troops packing as Zenobia locks down the Fertile Crescent! Saif bin Sultan has a decent force ready to defend Nizwa, but the damage is done; the loss of Nakhal is definitely going to hurt Oman for a while. On top of this, Palmyra has two settlers heading down towards Arabia, ready to fill in the region with beautiful dark purple and gold cities. I doubted whether Palmyra could break out of this region, but so far they are putting themselves in a strong position to do so.

The Iroquois have Toronto down to very low HP, but their nearest melee units are fortified a couple turns away from the city, just sitting there. Cities don’t take themselves, dude! Hiawatha needs to get off his ass and take it while he can, because I would not really be shocked if King proposes a peace treaty and the Iroquois just end the war here.

In more bad news for Canada, the new Métis city of Saint-Louis-de-Languevin further restricts King’s potential room to settle.

A look at the Parthia-Kazakh war shows that Mithridates has a huge number of ranged units in position to fire on Otrar, but has so far done little damage. If he actually uses all the archers and Shivatirs to attack the city, he should be able to take it in just a couple of turns. As long as that warrior stays alive, and he doesn’t do anything stupid, the city will be purple and blue pretty soon. Although, asking an AI not to do stupid things is always a risky move.

Parthia also declared war on Oman this turn, but this seems to be a symbolic move since they don’t share a border. And India has used its settler in the Hindu Kush, ensuring that Indira Gandhi controls some of the world’s highest mountains.

Aha, this is the Uruguay we know and hate! Juan Antonio Lavalleja has no less than three settles headed north toward fertile lands left empty by the hapless Kuikuro. I have no doubt that Uruguay will make full use of this territory, which will justify me consistently keeping them in the top 5 in the power rankings.

Side note: although Ciudad de la Costa (City of the Coast) is not on the coast, uruguay has partially made up for this by settling Las Piedras (the stones) next to an actual source of stone.

Zimbabwe’s core is almost completely devoid of units, since they’ve sent everything north—I’m convinced they’re headed for Nubia. That said, several of these cities are well shored up with newfangled walls, and they’ve got another settler heading out to the coast east of their capital to claim some land that otherwise might go to Madagascar. Now, if Nzinga had her army down here, this could be a great opportunity to take Zimbabwe by surprise, but sadly she is making the exact same mistake.

And last but not least, we get a look at the Yellow Sea, where Shikoku and Korea are still flipping Pyongyang back and forth, as evidenced by the fact that the city is currently in resistance. There’s no sign that Shikoku has the forces to launch an assault on Seoul, and in fact if Korea takes Pyongyang again, they might not be able to get it back right away. Shikoku does have allies—former enemies Canton and Qin have teamed up to declare war on Korea—but they will most likely be of little help.

Anyway, we will find out how exactly this goes next week! Thank you for following the civ battle royale, and don’t forget to tune in for power rankings, the power rankers’ podcast (announced on the Discord), and of course the next part!

—/u/Admiral_Cloudberg